Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
