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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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