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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd